How the numbers are made
Every projected time on this site ends with a short phrase saying where it came from. This page explains each one, and how the pieces combine.
The sources, most trusted first
- inReach fix. A GPS position with a time, from a runner's satellite tracker (Christianne and David carry one). A fix is a fact about where they were at that moment. The device reports about every ten minutes and the feed can lag a few more.
- Report, entered by hand. Someone tapped In now or Out now, or typed a time, on this site. As good as the person's clock and attention.
- Report, from ultralive. The race's own check-in system for the 100 only, radioed in by ham operators. The time is when the runner is said to have come through, and it is often written down in a batch a while later.
- Plan. The runner's own ultraPacer or crew pacing plan: intended arrival times, including their planned stops. Christianne, David, Kristen and Whitney have one.
- Earlier results. A runner's previous Superior finishes at any distance (and unfinished 100s, section by section), from the race's published results, turned into a pace level for this year.
- History. Twelve years of 100-mile splits, about 2,500 runners, plus five years of 50 and marathon finishes. This is where the fade, the night slowdown, the section difficulty and every ± come from.
The phrases
from tracker
The projection starts at the runner's newest inReach fix on the course. Their pace comes from their own arrivals so far, measured section by section against the history; the stretch since the last station counts once it is more than a mile. Ahead of them, each section's time is the history model at their measured level. from tracker & plan means their plan is blended in as well: each section ahead is the plan's time (scaled by how they have been running it) weighted against the model's, 70/30 in the plan's favour, dropping to 30/70 if they have been wandering far from it.
from last report
No fresh tracker fix; the projection starts at the runner's last aid-station report, ultralive or entered here. It starts at the out time when one was recorded (the runner is on the trail from then), otherwise at the in time, in which case the history's typical stop rides inside the next section. Pace and the plan blend work as above. Because a hand-recorded time can be minutes to an hour off, the ± from a report is wider than from a fix.
from plan
Nothing observed yet. The number is the runner's plan, exactly as written, with the history's range around it. The first arrival switches them to one of the phrases above.
from earlier results
Nothing observed yet and no plan, but the runner has finished Superior before. Their earlier finishes are run backwards through the history model into a pace level (recent results and this year's distance count more), and the projection is the model at that level from the gun.
no data yet
Nothing observed, no plan, no earlier results. Rather than invent a time, the page shows a window: from the arrival of a fast runner (the field's 10th percentile) to the station's cutoff.
The ±
Every projection carries a range: the 25th to 75th percentile of the error made by the same kind of projection, from the same station, across every finisher in the history. For the next station that is about ±6–11% of the section time, roughly ±10–17 minutes; for the finish it is hours early in the race and shrinks as they go. Starting from a tracker fix widens it a little (the tracking interval and GPS scatter), and it narrows as the runner closes on the station, never below a few minutes. A runner steadier than the field earns a narrower band. The band is honest, not conservative: the truth lands inside it about half the time.
Recorded times
A time in the past with no ~ is recorded, not projected. tracker means interpolated between two inReach fixes either side of the station; from a report means an in or out that was entered here or came from ultralive. † on the splits page marks the latter. When both exist for a station, the tracker's arrival is used and a stated out is taken as fact.
What the model knows about the course
Section difficulty comes mostly from how twelve years of runners actually ran each section, not from grade; the climb per mile is in the model but carries little weight, because the roots and rock matter as much as the hills. Runners slow with the miles they have run (about 1.7× by mile 50), and about 7% more in the dark. A 50-miler at Sugarloaf has run 21 miles, not 70, and is projected that way; each distance is calibrated so the model's median finish matches that race's real median.
Cutoffs, crew, drop bags
All from the race's aid station chart dated 8 August 2026, transcribed by hand. The chart says it is subject to change; the race's own materials win over anything here.