REPLAY — simulated data, not real runners. race 29h42 from the 100 gun · run 84685 Restart

Christianne Superior 100 · Gooseberry Falls to Caribou Highlands

11 of 13 aid stations reached · running 16% slower than plan

Projected finish 20:0136h01 (19:32–20:31), cutoff 22:0038h00

Projections from the newest fix on the trail, the plan weighted 30% against the history — the plan has stopped describing this run; finish typically ±29m.

Projected departures add this runner’s average stop so far, 12m.

ultraPacer plan · Garmin MapShare · ultralive

AidMileCrewBag Plan InOutStop vs planCutoff
Split Rock8.509:561h5609:431h4409:541h5410m-12m11:003h00 +1h16
Beaver Bay18.912:434h4312:374h3712:474h4710m-6m14:206h20 +1h43
Silver Bay23.114:036h0414:116h1214:226h2211m+8m16:008h00 +1h48
Tettegouche33.417:039h0317:309h3117:409h4010m+27m19:4011h40 +2h09
County Road 642.619:4811h4820:5312h5421:1313h1420m+1h0622:4014h40 +1h46
Finland50.622:1814h1923:5015h5023:5916h009m+1h3102:1018h10 +2h20
Sonju Lake Road58.200:3716h3702:5018h5103:1019h1120m+2h13none
Crosby-Manitou62.401:5517h5604:5220h5305:0221h0310m+2h5709:1025h10 +4h17
Sugarloaf72.205:0321h0308:4924h5008:5925h0010m+3h4712:1028h10 +3h20
Cramer Road77.706:4822h4911:0027h0111:1127h1110m+4h1213:4529h45 +2h44
Temperance84.608:4324h4413:0629h0713:1629h1710m+4h2316:0032h00 +2h53
Sawbill89.910:2526h25~15:09~31h10 ±9m~15:21~31h2217:4033h40 +2h30
Oberg95.412:0428h05~17:15~33h15 ±18m~17:27~33h2719:1035h10 +1h55
Finish · Caribou Highlands102.914:2730h28~20:01~36h01 ±29m22:0038h00 +1h59

Crew and drop-bag columns and every cutoff are from the race’s aid station chart (8 Aug 2026), not from the plan. “~” marks a projection, and ± its range: the 25th–75th percentile of the error of the same projection across twelve years of finishers, tight for the next station and wide for the finish; † an arrival taken from an ultralive aid-station report because the tracker had nothing there — those times are relayed by hand and can be off. Green beat the plan, amber is behind it, red is a cutoff in danger. “Stop” is blank where a stop was too short to distinguish from noise — and at a ten-minute tracking interval it cannot tell a stop apart from running that same stretch slowly, so read it as time lost around the station rather than time stood still. Times switch between clock and elapsed with the link above.