REPLAY — simulated data, not real runners. race 31h29 from the 100 gun · run 84349 Restart

Christianne Superior 100 · Gooseberry Falls to Caribou Highlands

12 of 13 aid stations reached · running 15% slower than plan

Projected finish 19:5135h52 (19:35–20:10), cutoff 22:0038h00

Projections from the newest fix on the trail, the plan weighted 70% against the history; finish typically ±18m.

Projected departures add this runner’s average stop so far, 15m.

ultraPacer plan · Garmin MapShare · ultralive

AidMileCrewBag Plan InOutStop vs planCutoff
Split Rock8.509:561h5610:052h0510:452h4641m+9m11:003h00 +55m
Beaver Bay18.912:434h4313:505h5014:006h0010m+1h0714:206h20 +30m
Silver Bay23.114:036h0415:317h3215:427h4210m+1h2816:008h00 +28m
Tettegouche33.417:039h0318:3010h30+1h2719:4011h40 +1h10
County Road 642.619:4811h4821:5413h5422:0314h0410m+2h0622:4014h40 +46m
Finland50.622:1814h1900:4916h5001:0017h0010m+2h3102:1018h10 +1h20
Sonju Lake Road58.200:3716h3703:4019h4103:5119h5110m+3h03none
Crosby-Manitou62.401:5517h5605:1721h1805:3821h3820m+3h2209:1025h10 +3h52
Sugarloaf72.205:0321h0308:4924h5008:5925h0010m+3h4712:1028h10 +3h20
Cramer Road77.706:4822h4910:3126h3210:4126h4210m+3h4313:4529h45 +3h13
Temperance84.608:4324h4412:5628h5713:0629h0710m+4h1316:0032h00 +3h03
Sawbill89.910:2526h2514:5730h5715:1731h1720m+4h3217:4033h40 +2h43
Oberg95.412:0428h05~17:06~33h07 ±8m~17:21~33h2219:1035h10 +2h03
Finish · Caribou Highlands102.914:2730h28~19:51~35h52 ±18m22:0038h00 +2h08

Crew and drop-bag columns and every cutoff are from the race’s aid station chart (8 Aug 2026), not from the plan. “~” marks a projection, and ± its range: the 25th–75th percentile of the error of the same projection across twelve years of finishers, tight for the next station and wide for the finish; † an arrival taken from an ultralive aid-station report because the tracker had nothing there — those times are relayed by hand and can be off. Green beat the plan, amber is behind it, red is a cutoff in danger. “Stop” is blank where a stop was too short to distinguish from noise — and at a ten-minute tracking interval it cannot tell a stop apart from running that same stretch slowly, so read it as time lost around the station rather than time stood still. Times switch between clock and elapsed with the link above.