REPLAY — simulated data, not real runners. race 43h11 from the 100 gun · run 75894 Restart

Christianne Superior 100 · Gooseberry Falls to Caribou Highlands

13 of 13 aid stations reached · running 9% faster than plan

Projections from the newest fix on the trail, the plan weighted 70% against the history; finish typically ±8m.

Projected departures add this runner’s average stop so far, 11m.

Projections are built on a fix 15h51m old.

ultraPacer plan · Garmin MapShare · ultralive

AidMileCrewBag Plan InOutStop vs planCutoff
Split Rock8.509:561h5609:371h37-19m11:003h00 +1h23
Beaver Bay18.912:434h4312:004h0012:104h1010m-43m14:206h20 +2h20
Silver Bay23.114:036h0413:115h1213:215h2210m-52m16:008h00 +2h48
Tettegouche33.417:039h0315:307h3115:407h4110m-1h3319:4011h40 +4h09
County Road 642.619:4811h4817:569h57-1h5222:4014h40 +4h43
Finland50.622:1814h1920:1912h2020:2912h3010m-1h5902:1018h10 +5h50
Sonju Lake Road58.200:3716h3722:4714h4722:5614h579m-1h50none
Crosby-Manitou62.401:5517h5600:1216h1300:2316h2310m-1h4309:1025h10 +8h57
Sugarloaf72.205:0321h0302:4918h5003:0019h0011m-2h1412:1028h10 +9h20
Cramer Road77.706:4822h4904:1220h1204:2120h2210m-2h3613:4529h45 +9h33
Temperance84.608:4324h4405:3921h39-3h0416:0032h00 +10h21
Sawbill89.910:2526h2507:2423h2507:4423h4520m-3h0117:4033h40 +10h15
Oberg95.412:0428h0509:0125h0109:1025h1110m-3h0319:1035h10 +10h09
Finish · Caribou Highlands102.914:2730h2811:1927h20-3h0822:0038h00 +10h40

Crew and drop-bag columns and every cutoff are from the race’s aid station chart (8 Aug 2026), not from the plan. “~” marks a projection, and ± its range: the 25th–75th percentile of the error of the same projection across twelve years of finishers, tight for the next station and wide for the finish; † an arrival taken from an ultralive aid-station report because the tracker had nothing there — those times are relayed by hand and can be off. Green beat the plan, amber is behind it, red is a cutoff in danger. “Stop” is blank where a stop was too short to distinguish from noise — and at a ten-minute tracking interval it cannot tell a stop apart from running that same stretch slowly, so read it as time lost around the station rather than time stood still. Times switch between clock and elapsed with the link above.