REPLAY — simulated data, not real runners. race 43h11 from the 100 gun · run 72121 Restart

Christianne Superior 100 · Gooseberry Falls to Caribou Highlands

13 of 13 aid stations reached · running 11% faster than plan

Projections from the newest fix on the trail, the plan weighted 70% against the history; finish typically ±8m.

Projected departures add this runner’s average stop so far, 11m.

Projections are built on a fix 16h31m old.

ultraPacer plan · Garmin MapShare · ultralive

AidMileCrewBag Plan InOutStop vs planCutoff
Split Rock8.509:561h5609:151h1609:251h2610m-40m11:003h00 +1h44
Beaver Bay18.912:434h4311:183h19-1h2514:206h20 +3h01
Silver Bay23.114:036h0412:324h3212:414h429m-1h3216:008h00 +3h28
Tettegouche33.417:039h0315:067h06-1h5719:4011h40 +4h34
County Road 642.619:4811h4817:249h2417:339h3410m-2h2422:4014h40 +5h16
Finland50.622:1814h1919:4011h40-2h3902:1018h10 +6h30
Sonju Lake Road58.200:3716h3721:5013h5122:0014h0110m-2h47none
Crosby-Manitou62.401:5517h5623:1115h1123:2115h2110m-2h4409:1025h10 +9h59
Sugarloaf72.205:0321h0302:0018h0002:0918h109m-3h0312:1028h10 +10h10
Cramer Road77.706:4822h4903:3219h3203:4219h4210m-3h1613:4529h45 +10h13
Temperance84.608:4324h4405:2921h30-3h1416:0032h00 +10h30
Sawbill89.910:2526h2506:5122h5207:0123h0210m-3h3317:4033h40 +10h48
Oberg95.412:0428h0508:3024h3108:5124h5120m-3h3419:1035h10 +10h39
Finish · Caribou Highlands102.914:2730h2810:4026h40-3h4722:0038h00 +11h20

Crew and drop-bag columns and every cutoff are from the race’s aid station chart (8 Aug 2026), not from the plan. “~” marks a projection, and ± its range: the 25th–75th percentile of the error of the same projection across twelve years of finishers, tight for the next station and wide for the finish; † an arrival taken from an ultralive aid-station report because the tracker had nothing there — those times are relayed by hand and can be off. Green beat the plan, amber is behind it, red is a cutoff in danger. “Stop” is blank where a stop was too short to distinguish from noise — and at a ten-minute tracking interval it cannot tell a stop apart from running that same stretch slowly, so read it as time lost around the station rather than time stood still. Times switch between clock and elapsed with the link above.