REPLAY — simulated data, not real runners. race 43h11 from the 100 gun · run 55833 Restart

Christianne Superior 100 · Gooseberry Falls to Caribou Highlands

13 of 13 aid stations reached · running 9% slower than plan

Projections from the newest fix on the trail, the plan weighted 30% against the history — the plan has stopped describing this run; finish typically ±8m.

Projected departures add this runner’s average stop so far, 16m.

Projections are built on a fix 9h41m old.

ultraPacer plan · Garmin MapShare · ultralive

AidMileCrewBag Plan InOutStop vs planCutoff
Split Rock8.509:561h5609:281h28-28m11:003h00 +1h32
Beaver Bay18.912:434h4311:503h5011:594h009m-53m14:206h20 +2h30
Silver Bay23.114:036h0413:065h06-58m16:008h00 +2h54
Tettegouche33.417:039h0315:507h5016:108h1020m-1h1319:4011h40 +3h50
County Road 642.619:4811h4819:0311h0419:1311h1310m-45m22:4014h40 +3h36
Finland50.622:1814h1921:3813h3921:4813h4910m-40m02:1018h10 +4h31
Sonju Lake Road58.200:3716h3700:3016h3000:5016h5020m-7mnone
Crosby-Manitou62.401:5517h5602:1218h1302:2218h2310m+17m09:1025h10 +6h57
Sugarloaf72.205:0321h0305:5922h0006:0922h1010m+57m12:1028h10 +6h10
Cramer Road77.706:4822h4907:5623h5708:1624h1720m+1h0813:4529h45 +5h48
Temperance84.608:4324h4410:1726h1710:3726h3720m+1h3416:0032h00 +5h43
Sawbill89.910:2526h2512:1428h1512:3428h3520m+1h4917:4033h40 +5h25
Oberg95.412:0428h0514:3130h3115:0031h0129m+2h2719:1035h10 +4h39
Finish · Caribou Highlands102.914:2730h2817:3033h30+3h0322:0038h00 +4h30

Crew and drop-bag columns and every cutoff are from the race’s aid station chart (8 Aug 2026), not from the plan. “~” marks a projection, and ± its range: the 25th–75th percentile of the error of the same projection across twelve years of finishers, tight for the next station and wide for the finish; † an arrival taken from an ultralive aid-station report because the tracker had nothing there — those times are relayed by hand and can be off. Green beat the plan, amber is behind it, red is a cutoff in danger. “Stop” is blank where a stop was too short to distinguish from noise — and at a ten-minute tracking interval it cannot tell a stop apart from running that same stretch slowly, so read it as time lost around the station rather than time stood still. Times switch between clock and elapsed with the link above.