REPLAY — simulated data, not real runners. race 43h11 from the 100 gun · run 30173 Restart

Christianne Superior 100 · Gooseberry Falls to Caribou Highlands

13 of 13 aid stations reached · running at plan pace

Projections from the newest fix on the trail, the plan weighted 30% against the history — the plan has stopped describing this run; finish typically ±3m.

Projected departures add this runner’s average stop so far, 14m.

Projections are built on a fix 13h11m old.

ultraPacer plan · Garmin MapShare · ultralive

AidMileCrewBag Plan InOutStop vs planCutoff
Split Rock8.509:561h5609:471h47-9m11:003h00 +1h13
Beaver Bay18.912:434h4312:104h1012:204h2010m-33m14:206h20 +2h10
Silver Bay23.114:036h0413:415h4213:515h5210m-22m16:008h00 +2h18
Tettegouche33.417:039h0316:208h2116:308h3110m-43m19:4011h40 +3h19
County Road 642.619:4811h4818:2410h2418:4410h4521m-1h2422:4014h40 +4h16
Finland50.622:1814h1921:0013h0021:0913h109m-1h1902:1018h10 +5h10
Sonju Lake Road58.200:3716h3723:2415h2523:5415h5530m-1h13none
Crosby-Manitou62.401:5517h5601:0317h0301:2317h2421m-52m09:1025h10 +8h07
Sugarloaf72.205:0321h0303:5919h5904:1820h1819m-1h0412:1028h10 +8h11
Cramer Road77.706:4822h4905:3921h3905:4821h4910m-1h0913:4529h45 +8h06
Temperance84.608:4324h4407:4923h4907:5924h0010m-54m16:0032h00 +8h11
Sawbill89.910:2526h2509:4425h4509:5425h5410m-41m17:4033h40 +7h55
Oberg95.412:0428h0511:2127h2111:3127h3110m-43m19:1035h10 +7h49
Finish · Caribou Highlands102.914:2730h2813:5930h00-28m22:0038h00 +8h00

Crew and drop-bag columns and every cutoff are from the race’s aid station chart (8 Aug 2026), not from the plan. “~” marks a projection, and ± its range: the 25th–75th percentile of the error of the same projection across twelve years of finishers, tight for the next station and wide for the finish; † an arrival taken from an ultralive aid-station report because the tracker had nothing there — those times are relayed by hand and can be off. Green beat the plan, amber is behind it, red is a cutoff in danger. “Stop” is blank where a stop was too short to distinguish from noise — and at a ten-minute tracking interval it cannot tell a stop apart from running that same stretch slowly, so read it as time lost around the station rather than time stood still. Times switch between clock and elapsed with the link above.