REPLAY — simulated data, not real runners. race 43h11 from the 100 gun · run 9727 Restart

David Bitner #514 · Superior 50 · Finland to Caribou Highlands

Crew Marin

7 of 7 aid stations reached · running 35% slower than plan

Projected finish 04:0822h53 (04:0022h4504:1623h01)past the 22:0016h45 cutoff

Projections from the newest fix on the trail, the plan weighted 70% against the history; finish typically ±8m.

AidMileCrewBag Plan InOut vs planCutoff
Sonju Lake Road7.007:142h0007:352h20+21mnone+in +out
Crosby-Manitou11.108:173h0309:033h4909:434h29+46m09:103h55 +6m+in +out
! Sugarloaf20.811:055h5013:268h1213:468h32+2h2112:106h55 -1h17+in +out
! Cramer Road26.112:397h2515:4310h2816:0310h49+3h0413:458h30 -1h58+in +out
! Temperance33.214:479h3218:5413h40+4h0716:0010h45 -2h55+in +out
! Sawbill38.416:3211h1721:3316h1821:5316h38+5h0117:4012h25 -3h53+in +out
! Oberg44.118:2013h0600:1318h5900:3319h19+5h5319:1013h55 -5h04+in +out
! Finish · Caribou Highlands51.621:1516h00~04:08~22h53 ±8m22:0016h45 -6h08+in +out

Crew and drop-bag columns and every cutoff are from the race’s aid station chart (8 Aug 2026), not from the plan. “~” marks a projection, and ± its range: the 25th–75th percentile of the error of the same projection across twelve years of finishers, tight for the next station and wide for the finish; † an arrival taken from a station report (ultralive or entered by hand). Green beat the plan, amber is behind it, red is a cutoff in danger. Times switch between clock and elapsed with the link above.

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