REPLAY — simulated data, not real runners. race 43h11 from the 100 gun · run 94882 Restart

David Bitner #514 · Superior 50 · Finland to Caribou Highlands

Crew Marin

7 of 7 aid stations reached · running 20% slower than plan

Finished 00:5419h40

Projections from the newest fix on the trail, the plan weighted 70% against the history; finish typically ±8m.

Projections are built on a fix 2h16m old.

AidMileCrewBag Plan InOut vs planCutoff
Sonju Lake Road7.007:142h0007:242h1007:352h20+10mnone+in +out
Crosby-Manitou11.108:173h0308:533h3909:033h48+36m09:103h55 +17m+in +out
Sugarloaf20.811:055h5012:046h50+1h0012:106h55 +5m+in +out
! Cramer Road26.112:397h2513:578h4314:088h53+1h1813:458h30 -13m+in +out
! Temperance33.214:479h3216:3411h19+1h4716:0010h45 -34m+in +out
! Sawbill38.416:3211h1718:4313h2819:0213h48+2h1117:4012h25 -1h03+in +out
! Oberg44.118:2013h0621:1215h5721:2216h07+2h5219:1013h55 -2h02+in +out
! Finish · Caribou Highlands51.621:1516h0000:5419h40+3h4022:0016h45 -2h55+in +out

Crew and drop-bag columns and every cutoff are from the race’s aid station chart (8 Aug 2026), not from the plan. “~” marks a projection, and ± its range: the 25th–75th percentile of the error of the same projection across twelve years of finishers, tight for the next station and wide for the finish; † an arrival taken from a station report (ultralive or entered by hand). Green beat the plan, amber is behind it, red is a cutoff in danger. Times switch between clock and elapsed with the link above.

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