REPLAY — simulated data, not real runners. race 43h11 from the 100 gun · run 93994 Restart

David Bitner #514 · Superior 50 · Finland to Caribou Highlands

Crew Marin

7 of 7 aid stations reached · running 19% slower than plan

Finished 00:5519h40

Projections from the newest fix on the trail, the plan weighted 70% against the history; finish typically ±8m.

Projections are built on a fix 2h16m old.

AidMileCrewBag Plan InOut vs planCutoff
Sonju Lake Road7.007:142h0007:302h1507:392h25+16mnone+time
Crosby-Manitou11.108:173h0308:453h30+27m09:103h55 +25m+time
Sugarloaf20.811:055h5011:546h4012:157h00+49m12:106h55 +15m+time
! Cramer Road26.112:397h2514:048h4914:149h00+1h2513:458h30 -19m+time
! Temperance33.214:479h3216:5411h3917:0411h49+2h0716:0010h45 -54m+time
! Sawbill38.416:3211h1718:5413h3919:1313h59+2h2217:4012h25 -1h14+time
! Oberg44.118:2013h0621:1215h5821:3216h17+2h5219:1013h55 -2h03+time
! Finish · Caribou Highlands51.621:1516h0000:5519h40+3h4022:0016h45 -2h55+time

Crew and drop-bag columns and every cutoff are from the race’s aid station chart (8 Aug 2026), not from the plan. “~” marks a projection, and ± its range: the 25th–75th percentile of the error of the same projection across twelve years of finishers, tight for the next station and wide for the finish; † an arrival taken from a station report (ultralive or entered by hand). Green beat the plan, amber is behind it, red is a cutoff in danger. Times switch between clock and elapsed with the link above.

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