REPLAY — simulated data, not real runners. race 43h11 from the 100 gun · run 8545 Restart

David Bitner #514 · Superior 50 · Finland to Caribou Highlands

Crew Marin

7 of 7 aid stations reached · running 23% slower than plan

Finished 01:4520h30

Projections from the newest fix on the trail, the plan weighted 70% against the history; finish typically ±8m.

Projections are built on a fix 1h26m old.

AidMileCrewBag Plan InOut vs planCutoff
Sonju Lake Road7.007:142h0007:252h1007:352h20+10mnone+in +out
Crosby-Manitou11.108:173h0308:543h4009:043h50+37m09:103h55 +15m+in +out
! Sugarloaf20.811:055h5012:147h0012:247h09+1h0912:106h55 -5m+in +out
! Cramer Road26.112:397h2513:578h4314:078h52+1h1813:458h30 -13m+in +out
! Temperance33.214:479h3216:4311h2916:5311h39+1h5616:0010h45 -44m+in +out
! Sawbill38.416:3211h1718:5413h4019:0413h49+2h2217:4012h25 -1h15+in +out
! Oberg44.118:2013h0621:3416h1921:5416h39+3h1419:1013h55 -2h24+in +out
! Finish · Caribou Highlands51.621:1516h0001:4520h30+4h3022:0016h45 -3h45+in +out

Crew and drop-bag columns and every cutoff are from the race’s aid station chart (8 Aug 2026), not from the plan. “~” marks a projection, and ± its range: the 25th–75th percentile of the error of the same projection across twelve years of finishers, tight for the next station and wide for the finish; † an arrival taken from a station report (ultralive or entered by hand). Green beat the plan, amber is behind it, red is a cutoff in danger. Times switch between clock and elapsed with the link above.

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Checked 03:11 CDT · reload