REPLAY — simulated data, not real runners. race 43h11 from the 100 gun · run 84145 Restart

David Bitner #514 · Superior 50 · Finland to Caribou Highlands

Crew Marin

7 of 7 aid stations reached · running 6% slower than plan

Finished 22:2517h10

Projections from the newest fix on the trail, the plan weighted 70% against the history; finish typically ±8m.

Projections are built on a fix 4h46m old.

AidMileCrewBag Plan InOut vs planCutoff
Sonju Lake Road7.007:142h0007:342h2007:442h30+20mnone+time
Crosby-Manitou11.108:173h0308:443h30+27m09:103h55 +25m+time
Sugarloaf20.811:055h5011:546h3911:576h43+49m12:106h55 +16m+time
Cramer Road26.112:397h2513:348h1913:448h30+55m13:458h30 +11m+time
! Temperance33.214:479h3216:0210h4816:1310h58+1h1616:0010h45 -3m+time
! Sawbill38.416:3211h1717:5412h4018:0412h49+1h2317:4012h25 -15m+time
! Oberg44.118:2013h0619:3214h1819:5214h37+1h1219:1013h55 -23m+time
! Finish · Caribou Highlands51.621:1516h0022:2517h10+1h1022:0016h45 -25m+time

Crew and drop-bag columns and every cutoff are from the race’s aid station chart (8 Aug 2026), not from the plan. “~” marks a projection, and ± its range: the 25th–75th percentile of the error of the same projection across twelve years of finishers, tight for the next station and wide for the finish; † an arrival taken from a station report (ultralive or entered by hand). Green beat the plan, amber is behind it, red is a cutoff in danger. Times switch between clock and elapsed with the link above.

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Checked 03:11 CDT · reload

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