REPLAY — simulated data, not real runners. race 43h11 from the 100 gun · run 83403 Restart

David Bitner #514 · Superior 50 · Finland to Caribou Highlands

Crew Marin

7 of 7 aid stations reached · running 7% slower than plan

Finished 22:3517h20

Projections from the newest fix on the trail, the plan weighted 70% against the history; finish typically ±8m.

Projections are built on a fix 4h36m old.

AidMileCrewBag Plan InOut vs planCutoff
Sonju Lake Road7.007:142h0007:051h5007:152h01-9mnone+time
Crosby-Manitou11.108:173h0308:243h0908:433h29+7m09:103h55 +46m+time
Sugarloaf20.811:055h5011:246h1011:346h20+20m12:106h55 +45m+time
Cramer Road26.112:397h2513:057h5013:148h00+26m13:458h30 +40m+time
Temperance33.214:479h3215:049h50+17m16:0010h45 +55m+time
Sawbill38.416:3211h1717:0411h4917:1311h59+32m17:4012h25 +36m+time
! Oberg44.118:2013h0619:1313h5919:3314h19+53m19:1013h55 -4m+time
! Finish · Caribou Highlands51.621:1516h0022:3517h20+1h2022:0016h45 -35m+time

Crew and drop-bag columns and every cutoff are from the race’s aid station chart (8 Aug 2026), not from the plan. “~” marks a projection, and ± its range: the 25th–75th percentile of the error of the same projection across twelve years of finishers, tight for the next station and wide for the finish; † an arrival taken from a station report (ultralive or entered by hand). Green beat the plan, amber is behind it, red is a cutoff in danger. Times switch between clock and elapsed with the link above.

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Checked 03:11 CDT · reload

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