REPLAY — simulated data, not real runners. race 43h11 from the 100 gun · run 80431 Restart

David Bitner #514 · Superior 50 · Finland to Caribou Highlands

Crew Marin

7 of 7 aid stations reached · running 13% slower than plan

Finished 00:0418h50

Projections from the newest fix on the trail, the plan weighted 70% against the history; finish typically ±8m.

Projections are built on a fix 3h6m old.

AidMileCrewBag Plan InOut vs planCutoff
Sonju Lake Road7.007:142h0007:282h13+14mnone+time
Crosby-Manitou11.108:173h0308:343h2008:443h30+17m09:103h55 +35m+time
Sugarloaf20.811:055h5011:346h1911:446h29+29m12:106h55 +36m+time
Cramer Road26.112:397h2513:378h2313:578h43+58m13:458h30 +7m+time
! Temperance33.214:479h3216:2311h0916:3311h19+1h3616:0010h45 -24m+time
! Sawbill38.416:3211h1718:2313h0818:3313h18+1h5117:4012h25 -43m+time
! Oberg44.118:2013h0620:1414h5920:2415h09+1h5419:1013h55 -1h04+time
! Finish · Caribou Highlands51.621:1516h0000:0418h50+2h5022:0016h45 -2h05+time

Crew and drop-bag columns and every cutoff are from the race’s aid station chart (8 Aug 2026), not from the plan. “~” marks a projection, and ± its range: the 25th–75th percentile of the error of the same projection across twelve years of finishers, tight for the next station and wide for the finish; † an arrival taken from a station report (ultralive or entered by hand). Green beat the plan, amber is behind it, red is a cutoff in danger. Times switch between clock and elapsed with the link above.

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