REPLAY — simulated data, not real runners. race 43h11 from the 100 gun · run 80353 Restart

David Bitner #514 · Superior 50 · Finland to Caribou Highlands

Crew Marin

7 of 7 aid stations reached · running 20% faster than plan

Finished 17:2512h10

Projections from the newest fix on the trail, the plan weighted 70% against the history; finish typically ±8m.

Projections are built on a fix 9h46m old.

AidMileCrewBag Plan InOut vs planCutoff
Sonju Lake Road7.007:142h0006:441h3006:471h32-30mnone+time
Crosby-Manitou11.108:173h0307:452h3007:482h34-33m09:103h55 +1h25+time
Sugarloaf20.811:055h5009:544h40-1h1012:106h55 +2h15+time
Cramer Road26.112:397h2511:045h49-1h3513:458h30 +2h41+time
Temperance33.214:479h3212:347h2012:557h40-2h1216:0010h45 +3h25+time
Sawbill38.416:3211h1714:048h49-2h2817:4012h25 +3h36+time
Oberg44.118:2013h0615:1410h00-3h0619:1013h55 +3h55+time
Finish · Caribou Highlands51.621:1516h0017:2512h10-3h5022:0016h45 +4h35+time

Crew and drop-bag columns and every cutoff are from the race’s aid station chart (8 Aug 2026), not from the plan. “~” marks a projection, and ± its range: the 25th–75th percentile of the error of the same projection across twelve years of finishers, tight for the next station and wide for the finish; † an arrival taken from a station report (ultralive or entered by hand). Green beat the plan, amber is behind it, red is a cutoff in danger. Times switch between clock and elapsed with the link above.

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Checked 03:11 CDT · reload

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