REPLAY — simulated data, not real runners. race 43h11 from the 100 gun · run 79010 Restart

David Bitner #514 · Superior 50 · Finland to Caribou Highlands

Crew Marin

7 of 7 aid stations reached · running 7% slower than plan

Finished 22:4417h30

Projections from the newest fix on the trail, the plan weighted 70% against the history; finish typically ±8m.

Projections are built on a fix 4h26m old.

AidMileCrewBag Plan InOut vs planCutoff
Sonju Lake Road7.007:142h0007:041h50-10mnone+in +out
Crosby-Manitou11.108:173h0308:042h50-13m09:103h55 +1h05+in +out
Sugarloaf20.811:055h5010:445h3010:475h33-20m12:106h55 +1h25+in +out
Cramer Road26.112:397h2512:387h2312:487h33-2m13:458h30 +1h07+in +out
Temperance33.214:479h3215:049h49+17m16:0010h45 +56m+in +out
Sawbill38.416:3211h1717:0911h5417:1912h04+37m17:4012h25 +31m+in +out
! Oberg44.118:2013h0619:2214h0819:3114h17+1h0219:1013h55 -13m+in +out
! Finish · Caribou Highlands51.621:1516h0022:4417h30+1h3022:0016h45 -45m+in +out

Crew and drop-bag columns and every cutoff are from the race’s aid station chart (8 Aug 2026), not from the plan. “~” marks a projection, and ± its range: the 25th–75th percentile of the error of the same projection across twelve years of finishers, tight for the next station and wide for the finish; † an arrival taken from a station report (ultralive or entered by hand). Green beat the plan, amber is behind it, red is a cutoff in danger. Times switch between clock and elapsed with the link above.

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