REPLAY — simulated data, not real runners. race 43h11 from the 100 gun · run 78283 Restart

David Bitner #514 · Superior 50 · Finland to Caribou Highlands

Crew Marin

7 of 7 aid stations reached · running 4% faster than plan

Finished 20:4515h30

Projections from the newest fix on the trail, the plan weighted 30% against the history — the plan has stopped describing this run; finish typically ±8m.

Projections are built on a fix 6h26m old.

AidMileCrewBag Plan InOut vs planCutoff
Sonju Lake Road7.007:142h0006:541h4006:571h42-20mnone+time
Crosby-Manitou11.108:173h0307:442h30-33m09:103h55 +1h25+time
Sugarloaf20.811:055h5010:245h10-41m12:106h55 +1h45+time
Cramer Road26.112:397h2511:546h40-45m13:458h30 +1h50+time
Temperance33.214:479h3213:448h30-1h0216:0010h45 +2h15+time
Sawbill38.416:3211h1715:5410h4016:0410h49-37m17:4012h25 +1h45+time
Oberg44.118:2013h0617:4412h2917:5412h40-37m19:1013h55 +1h26+time
Finish · Caribou Highlands51.621:1516h0020:4515h30-30m22:0016h45 +1h15+time

Crew and drop-bag columns and every cutoff are from the race’s aid station chart (8 Aug 2026), not from the plan. “~” marks a projection, and ± its range: the 25th–75th percentile of the error of the same projection across twelve years of finishers, tight for the next station and wide for the finish; † an arrival taken from a station report (ultralive or entered by hand). Green beat the plan, amber is behind it, red is a cutoff in danger. Times switch between clock and elapsed with the link above.

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Checked 03:11 CDT · reload

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