REPLAY — simulated data, not real runners. race 43h11 from the 100 gun · run 76865 Restart

David Bitner #514 · Superior 50 · Finland to Caribou Highlands

Crew Marin

7 of 7 aid stations reached · running 18% slower than plan

Finished 00:5519h40

Projections from the newest fix on the trail, the plan weighted 30% against the history — the plan has stopped describing this run; finish typically ±8m.

Projections are built on a fix 2h16m old.

AidMileCrewBag Plan InOut vs planCutoff
Sonju Lake Road7.007:142h0007:152h00+0mnone+time
Crosby-Manitou11.108:173h0308:243h0908:333h19+6m09:103h55 +46m+time
Sugarloaf20.811:055h5011:045h49-1m12:106h55 +1h06+time
Cramer Road26.112:397h2513:047h5013:148h00+25m13:458h30 +40m+time
Temperance33.214:479h3215:5310h3916:1310h59+1h0616:0010h45 +6m+time
! Sawbill38.416:3211h1718:1212h5818:3213h18+1h4117:4012h25 -33m+time
! Oberg44.118:2013h0621:0215h4721:1115h57+2h4119:1013h55 -1h52+time
! Finish · Caribou Highlands51.621:1516h0000:5519h40+3h4022:0016h45 -2h55+time

Crew and drop-bag columns and every cutoff are from the race’s aid station chart (8 Aug 2026), not from the plan. “~” marks a projection, and ± its range: the 25th–75th percentile of the error of the same projection across twelve years of finishers, tight for the next station and wide for the finish; † an arrival taken from a station report (ultralive or entered by hand). Green beat the plan, amber is behind it, red is a cutoff in danger. Times switch between clock and elapsed with the link above.

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