REPLAY — simulated data, not real runners. race 43h11 from the 100 gun · run 73473 Restart

David Bitner #514 · Superior 50 · Finland to Caribou Highlands

Crew Marin

7 of 7 aid stations reached · running 5% faster than plan

Finished 20:1515h00

Projections from the newest fix on the trail, the plan weighted 70% against the history; finish typically ±8m.

Projections are built on a fix 6h56m old.

AidMileCrewBag Plan InOut vs planCutoff
Sonju Lake Road7.007:142h0007:242h1007:272h13+10mnone+time
Crosby-Manitou11.108:173h0308:243h1008:343h20+7m09:103h55 +45m+time
Sugarloaf20.811:055h5010:545h4011:045h50-10m12:106h55 +1h15+time
Cramer Road26.112:397h2512:237h0912:347h20-16m13:458h30 +1h21+time
Temperance33.214:479h3214:249h1014:349h20-23m16:0010h45 +1h35+time
Sawbill38.416:3211h1716:0410h5016:1411h00-28m17:4012h25 +1h35+time
Oberg44.118:2013h0617:5212h3718:0212h48-28m19:1013h55 +1h18+time
Finish · Caribou Highlands51.621:1516h0020:1515h00-1h0022:0016h45 +1h45+time

Crew and drop-bag columns and every cutoff are from the race’s aid station chart (8 Aug 2026), not from the plan. “~” marks a projection, and ± its range: the 25th–75th percentile of the error of the same projection across twelve years of finishers, tight for the next station and wide for the finish; † an arrival taken from a station report (ultralive or entered by hand). Green beat the plan, amber is behind it, red is a cutoff in danger. Times switch between clock and elapsed with the link above.

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