REPLAY — simulated data, not real runners. race 43h11 from the 100 gun · run 7199 Restart

David Bitner #514 · Superior 50 · Finland to Caribou Highlands

Crew Marin

7 of 7 aid stations reached · running 18% faster than plan

Finished 17:5412h40

Projections from the newest fix on the trail, the plan weighted 70% against the history; finish typically ±8m.

Projections are built on a fix 9h16m old.

AidMileCrewBag Plan InOut vs planCutoff
Sonju Lake Road7.007:142h0006:491h3506:531h38-25mnone+time
Crosby-Manitou11.108:173h0307:442h2907:542h40-34m09:103h55 +1h26+time
Sugarloaf20.811:055h5010:155h0010:195h04-50m12:106h55 +1h55+time
Cramer Road26.112:397h2511:276h1311:376h23-1h1213:458h30 +2h17+time
Temperance33.214:479h3213:077h5313:097h55-1h4016:0010h45 +2h52+time
Sawbill38.416:3211h1714:279h1214:379h23-2h0517:4012h25 +3h13+time
Oberg44.118:2013h0615:5210h3716:0110h47-2h2819:1013h55 +3h18+time
Finish · Caribou Highlands51.621:1516h0017:5412h40-3h2022:0016h45 +4h05+time

Crew and drop-bag columns and every cutoff are from the race’s aid station chart (8 Aug 2026), not from the plan. “~” marks a projection, and ± its range: the 25th–75th percentile of the error of the same projection across twelve years of finishers, tight for the next station and wide for the finish; † an arrival taken from a station report (ultralive or entered by hand). Green beat the plan, amber is behind it, red is a cutoff in danger. Times switch between clock and elapsed with the link above.

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