REPLAY — simulated data, not real runners. race 43h11 from the 100 gun · run 71196 Restart

David Bitner #514 · Superior 50 · Finland to Caribou Highlands

Crew Marin

7 of 7 aid stations reached · running 8% faster than plan

Finished 19:5414h40

Projections from the newest fix on the trail, the plan weighted 70% against the history; finish typically ±8m.

Projections are built on a fix 7h16m old.

AidMileCrewBag Plan InOut vs planCutoff
Sonju Lake Road7.007:142h0006:451h3006:481h34-29mnone+in +out
Crosby-Manitou11.108:173h0307:342h20-43m09:103h55 +1h35+in +out
Sugarloaf20.811:055h5010:024h4810:134h58-1h0212:106h55 +2h07+in +out
Cramer Road26.112:397h2511:246h1011:346h20-1h1513:458h30 +2h20+in +out
Temperance33.214:479h3213:268h11-1h2116:0010h45 +2h34+in +out
Sawbill38.416:3211h1715:099h5515:2010h05-1h2217:4012h25 +2h30+in +out
Oberg44.118:2013h0617:0011h4617:1011h56-1h2019:1013h55 +2h09+in +out
Finish · Caribou Highlands51.621:1516h0019:5414h40-1h2022:0016h45 +2h05+in +out

Crew and drop-bag columns and every cutoff are from the race’s aid station chart (8 Aug 2026), not from the plan. “~” marks a projection, and ± its range: the 25th–75th percentile of the error of the same projection across twelve years of finishers, tight for the next station and wide for the finish; † an arrival taken from a station report (ultralive or entered by hand). Green beat the plan, amber is behind it, red is a cutoff in danger. Times switch between clock and elapsed with the link above.

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