REPLAY — simulated data, not real runners. race 43h11 from the 100 gun · run 62926 Restart

David Bitner #514 · Superior 50 · Finland to Caribou Highlands

Crew Marin

7 of 7 aid stations reached · running 17% faster than plan

Finished 18:0412h50

Projections from the newest fix on the trail, the plan weighted 30% against the history — the plan has stopped describing this run; finish typically ±8m.

Projections are built on a fix 9h6m old.

AidMileCrewBag Plan InOut vs planCutoff
Sonju Lake Road7.007:142h0007:051h5007:091h54-9mnone+in +out
Crosby-Manitou11.108:173h0307:552h4007:572h42-23m09:103h55 +1h15+in +out
Sugarloaf20.811:055h5010:044h5010:074h52-1h0012:106h55 +2h05+in +out
Cramer Road26.112:397h2511:055h5011:156h00-1h3513:458h30 +2h40+in +out
Temperance33.214:479h3212:547h4013:057h50-1h5316:0010h45 +3h05+in +out
Sawbill38.416:3211h1714:349h2014:459h30-1h5717:4012h25 +3h05+in +out
Oberg44.118:2013h0615:5410h4016:0410h50-2h2619:1013h55 +3h15+in +out
Finish · Caribou Highlands51.621:1516h0018:0412h50-3h1022:0016h45 +3h55+in +out

Crew and drop-bag columns and every cutoff are from the race’s aid station chart (8 Aug 2026), not from the plan. “~” marks a projection, and ± its range: the 25th–75th percentile of the error of the same projection across twelve years of finishers, tight for the next station and wide for the finish; † an arrival taken from a station report (ultralive or entered by hand). Green beat the plan, amber is behind it, red is a cutoff in danger. Times switch between clock and elapsed with the link above.

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