REPLAY — simulated data, not real runners. race 43h11 from the 100 gun · run 62848 Restart

David Bitner #514 · Superior 50 · Finland to Caribou Highlands

Crew Marin

7 of 7 aid stations reached · running 8% slower than plan

Finished 22:3517h20

Projections from the newest fix on the trail, the plan weighted 30% against the history — the plan has stopped describing this run; finish typically ±8m.

Projections are built on a fix 4h36m old.

AidMileCrewBag Plan InOut vs planCutoff
Sonju Lake Road7.007:142h0007:252h10+10mnone+in +out
Crosby-Manitou11.108:173h0308:453h3008:543h40+28m09:103h55 +25m+in +out
Sugarloaf20.811:055h5012:056h5012:076h53+1h0012:106h55 +5m+in +out
! Cramer Road26.112:397h2514:078h5314:179h02+1h2813:458h30 -23m+in +out
! Temperance33.214:479h3216:2711h1216:3611h22+1h4016:0010h45 -27m+in +out
! Sawbill38.416:3211h1718:0212h4818:1212h57+1h3117:4012h25 -23m+in +out
! Oberg44.118:2013h0619:5214h3720:0214h47+1h3219:1013h55 -42m+in +out
! Finish · Caribou Highlands51.621:1516h0022:3517h20+1h2022:0016h45 -35m+in +out

Crew and drop-bag columns and every cutoff are from the race’s aid station chart (8 Aug 2026), not from the plan. “~” marks a projection, and ± its range: the 25th–75th percentile of the error of the same projection across twelve years of finishers, tight for the next station and wide for the finish; † an arrival taken from a station report (ultralive or entered by hand). Green beat the plan, amber is behind it, red is a cutoff in danger. Times switch between clock and elapsed with the link above.

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