REPLAY — simulated data, not real runners. race 43h11 from the 100 gun · run 59664 Restart

David Bitner #514 · Superior 50 · Finland to Caribou Highlands

Crew Marin

7 of 7 aid stations reached · running 10% slower than plan

Finished 22:5517h40

Projections from the newest fix on the trail, the plan weighted 70% against the history; finish typically ±8m.

Projections are built on a fix 4h16m old.

AidMileCrewBag Plan InOut vs planCutoff
Sonju Lake Road7.007:142h0007:252h1007:352h20+11mnone+in +out
Crosby-Manitou11.108:173h0308:533h3809:033h48+35m09:103h55 +17m+in +out
Sugarloaf20.811:055h5012:036h4812:136h58+58m12:106h55 +7m+in +out
! Cramer Road26.112:397h2513:478h3313:578h42+1h0813:458h30 -3m+in +out
Temperance33.214:479h3215:5510h4016:0510h50+1h0816:0010h45 +5m+in +out
! Sawbill38.416:3211h1718:0312h4918:1412h59+1h3117:4012h25 -24m+in +out
! Oberg44.118:2013h0619:5214h3720:0214h47+1h3219:1013h55 -42m+in +out
! Finish · Caribou Highlands51.621:1516h0022:5517h40+1h4022:0016h45 -55m+in +out

Crew and drop-bag columns and every cutoff are from the race’s aid station chart (8 Aug 2026), not from the plan. “~” marks a projection, and ± its range: the 25th–75th percentile of the error of the same projection across twelve years of finishers, tight for the next station and wide for the finish; † an arrival taken from a station report (ultralive or entered by hand). Green beat the plan, amber is behind it, red is a cutoff in danger. Times switch between clock and elapsed with the link above.

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