REPLAY — simulated data, not real runners. race 43h11 from the 100 gun · run 58779 Restart

David Bitner #514 · Superior 50 · Finland to Caribou Highlands

Crew Marin

7 of 7 aid stations reached · running 9% slower than plan

Finished 22:3417h20

Projections from the newest fix on the trail, the plan weighted 30% against the history — the plan has stopped describing this run; finish typically ±8m.

Projections are built on a fix 4h36m old.

AidMileCrewBag Plan InOut vs planCutoff
Sonju Lake Road7.007:142h0007:452h3008:253h11+31mnone+in +out
! Crosby-Manitou11.108:173h0309:244h1009:344h20+1h0709:103h55 -15m+in +out
! Sugarloaf20.811:055h5012:177h0212:267h12+1h1212:106h55 -7m+in +out
Cramer Road26.112:397h2513:448h3014:048h50+1h0513:458h30 +0m+in +out
! Temperance33.214:479h3216:0310h4916:2311h08+1h1616:0010h45 -4m+in +out
! Sawbill38.416:3211h1718:2313h0818:3313h18+1h5117:4012h25 -43m+in +out
! Oberg44.118:2013h0620:0314h4920:1314h59+1h4319:1013h55 -54m+in +out
! Finish · Caribou Highlands51.621:1516h0022:3417h20+1h2022:0016h45 -35m+in +out

Crew and drop-bag columns and every cutoff are from the race’s aid station chart (8 Aug 2026), not from the plan. “~” marks a projection, and ± its range: the 25th–75th percentile of the error of the same projection across twelve years of finishers, tight for the next station and wide for the finish; † an arrival taken from a station report (ultralive or entered by hand). Green beat the plan, amber is behind it, red is a cutoff in danger. Times switch between clock and elapsed with the link above.

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