REPLAY — simulated data, not real runners. race 43h11 from the 100 gun · run 58106 Restart

David Bitner #514 · Superior 50 · Finland to Caribou Highlands

Crew Marin

7 of 7 aid stations reached · running 23% slower than plan

Finished 02:2521h10

Projections from the newest fix on the trail, the plan weighted 30% against the history — the plan has stopped describing this run; finish typically ±8m.

Projections are built on a fix 46m old.

AidMileCrewBag Plan InOut vs planCutoff
Sonju Lake Road7.007:142h0007:152h0007:252h10+1mnone+time
Crosby-Manitou11.108:173h0308:343h1908:443h30+17m09:103h55 +36m+time
Sugarloaf20.811:055h5012:046h4912:146h59+59m12:106h55 +6m+time
! Cramer Road26.112:397h2513:548h40+1h1513:458h30 -10m+time
! Temperance33.214:479h3216:4411h2916:5411h40+1h5716:0010h45 -44m+time
! Sawbill38.416:3211h1718:5413h4019:0413h50+2h2317:4012h25 -1h15+time
! Oberg44.118:2013h0621:2116h0722:0216h48+3h0119:1013h55 -2h12+time
! Finish · Caribou Highlands51.621:1516h0002:2521h10+5h1022:0016h45 -4h25+time

Crew and drop-bag columns and every cutoff are from the race’s aid station chart (8 Aug 2026), not from the plan. “~” marks a projection, and ± its range: the 25th–75th percentile of the error of the same projection across twelve years of finishers, tight for the next station and wide for the finish; † an arrival taken from a station report (ultralive or entered by hand). Green beat the plan, amber is behind it, red is a cutoff in danger. Times switch between clock and elapsed with the link above.

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Checked 03:11 CDT · reload

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