REPLAY — simulated data, not real runners. race 43h11 from the 100 gun · run 57787 Restart

David Bitner #514 · Superior 50 · Finland to Caribou Highlands

Crew Marin

7 of 7 aid stations reached · running 12% faster than plan

Finished 18:4413h30

Projections from the newest fix on the trail, the plan weighted 70% against the history; finish typically ±8m.

Projections are built on a fix 8h26m old.

AidMileCrewBag Plan InOut vs planCutoff
Sonju Lake Road7.007:142h0007:041h5007:142h00-10mnone+in +out
Crosby-Manitou11.108:173h0308:042h50-13m09:103h55 +1h05+in +out
Sugarloaf20.811:055h5010:145h0010:245h09-50m12:106h55 +1h55+in +out
Cramer Road26.112:397h2511:346h20-1h0513:458h30 +2h10+in +out
Temperance33.214:479h3213:228h0813:328h17-1h2516:0010h45 +2h37+in +out
Sawbill38.416:3211h1714:539h3815:039h49-1h3917:4012h25 +2h47+in +out
Oberg44.118:2013h0616:3211h1716:5211h37-1h4819:1013h55 +2h38+in +out
Finish · Caribou Highlands51.621:1516h0018:4413h30-2h3022:0016h45 +3h15+in +out

Crew and drop-bag columns and every cutoff are from the race’s aid station chart (8 Aug 2026), not from the plan. “~” marks a projection, and ± its range: the 25th–75th percentile of the error of the same projection across twelve years of finishers, tight for the next station and wide for the finish; † an arrival taken from a station report (ultralive or entered by hand). Green beat the plan, amber is behind it, red is a cutoff in danger. Times switch between clock and elapsed with the link above.

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