REPLAY — simulated data, not real runners. race 43h11 from the 100 gun · run 57258 Restart

David Bitner #514 · Superior 50 · Finland to Caribou Highlands

Crew Marin

7 of 7 aid stations reached · running 10% slower than plan

Finished 22:4417h30

Projections from the newest fix on the trail, the plan weighted 30% against the history — the plan has stopped describing this run; finish typically ±8m.

Projections are built on a fix 4h26m old.

AidMileCrewBag Plan InOut vs planCutoff
Sonju Lake Road7.007:142h0007:152h0007:252h10+1mnone+in +out
Crosby-Manitou11.108:173h0308:343h1908:443h29+17m09:103h55 +36m+in +out
Sugarloaf20.811:055h5011:346h1912:147h00+29m12:106h55 +36m+in +out
! Cramer Road26.112:397h2513:478h3314:078h53+1h0813:458h30 -3m+in +out
Temperance33.214:479h3215:4410h3016:1410h59+58m16:0010h45 +15m+in +out
! Sawbill38.416:3211h1718:0412h5018:1412h59+1h3317:4012h25 -25m+in +out
! Oberg44.118:2013h0620:0414h5020:1415h00+1h4419:1013h55 -55m+in +out
! Finish · Caribou Highlands51.621:1516h0022:4417h30+1h3022:0016h45 -45m+in +out

Crew and drop-bag columns and every cutoff are from the race’s aid station chart (8 Aug 2026), not from the plan. “~” marks a projection, and ± its range: the 25th–75th percentile of the error of the same projection across twelve years of finishers, tight for the next station and wide for the finish; † an arrival taken from a station report (ultralive or entered by hand). Green beat the plan, amber is behind it, red is a cutoff in danger. Times switch between clock and elapsed with the link above.

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