REPLAY — simulated data, not real runners. race 43h11 from the 100 gun · run 56948 Restart

David Bitner #514 · Superior 50 · Finland to Caribou Highlands

Crew Marin

7 of 7 aid stations reached · running 18% slower than plan

Finished 00:3419h20

Projections from the newest fix on the trail, the plan weighted 30% against the history — the plan has stopped describing this run; finish typically ±8m.

Projections are built on a fix 2h36m old.

AidMileCrewBag Plan InOut vs planCutoff
Sonju Lake Road7.007:142h0007:342h2007:382h23+20mnone+time
Crosby-Manitou11.108:173h0308:543h4009:354h20+37m09:103h55 +15m+time
! Sugarloaf20.811:055h5012:267h1212:477h32+1h2212:106h55 -17m+time
! Cramer Road26.112:397h2514:579h4315:089h53+2h1813:458h30 -1h13+time
! Temperance33.214:479h3217:2412h1017:3412h20+2h3816:0010h45 -1h25+time
! Sawbill38.416:3211h1719:4214h2819:5214h38+3h1117:4012h25 -2h03+time
! Oberg44.118:2013h0621:4316h2821:5216h38+3h2319:1013h55 -2h33+time
! Finish · Caribou Highlands51.621:1516h0000:3419h20+3h2022:0016h45 -2h35+time

Crew and drop-bag columns and every cutoff are from the race’s aid station chart (8 Aug 2026), not from the plan. “~” marks a projection, and ± its range: the 25th–75th percentile of the error of the same projection across twelve years of finishers, tight for the next station and wide for the finish; † an arrival taken from a station report (ultralive or entered by hand). Green beat the plan, amber is behind it, red is a cutoff in danger. Times switch between clock and elapsed with the link above.

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