REPLAY — simulated data, not real runners. race 43h11 from the 100 gun · run 55893 Restart

David Bitner #514 · Superior 50 · Finland to Caribou Highlands

Crew Marin

7 of 7 aid stations reached · running 14% slower than plan

Finished 23:4418h30

Projections from the newest fix on the trail, the plan weighted 30% against the history — the plan has stopped describing this run; finish typically ±8m.

Projections are built on a fix 3h26m old.

AidMileCrewBag Plan InOut vs planCutoff
Sonju Lake Road7.007:142h0007:242h1008:052h50+10mnone+in +out
! Crosby-Manitou11.108:173h0309:144h0009:344h20+57m09:103h55 -5m+in +out
! Sugarloaf20.811:055h5012:377h2212:467h32+1h3212:106h55 -27m+in +out
! Cramer Road26.112:397h2514:349h2014:449h30+1h5513:458h30 -50m+in +out
! Temperance33.214:479h3216:4711h3216:5711h42+2h0016:0010h45 -47m+in +out
! Sawbill38.416:3211h1718:2413h0918:5413h40+1h5217:4012h25 -44m+in +out
! Oberg44.118:2013h0620:3315h1920:4415h29+2h1319:1013h55 -1h24+in +out
! Finish · Caribou Highlands51.621:1516h0023:4418h30+2h3022:0016h45 -1h45+in +out

Crew and drop-bag columns and every cutoff are from the race’s aid station chart (8 Aug 2026), not from the plan. “~” marks a projection, and ± its range: the 25th–75th percentile of the error of the same projection across twelve years of finishers, tight for the next station and wide for the finish; † an arrival taken from a station report (ultralive or entered by hand). Green beat the plan, amber is behind it, red is a cutoff in danger. Times switch between clock and elapsed with the link above.

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