REPLAY — simulated data, not real runners. race 43h11 from the 100 gun · run 54544 Restart

David Bitner #514 · Superior 50 · Finland to Caribou Highlands

Crew Marin

7 of 7 aid stations reached · running 23% faster than plan

Finished 17:0411h50

Projections from the newest fix on the trail, the plan weighted 70% against the history; finish typically ±8m.

Projections are built on a fix 10h6m old.

AidMileCrewBag Plan InOut vs planCutoff
Sonju Lake Road7.007:142h0006:441h3006:481h33-30mnone+time
Crosby-Manitou11.108:173h0307:342h1907:432h29-44m09:103h55 +1h36+time
Sugarloaf20.811:055h5009:344h20-1h3012:106h55 +2h35+time
Cramer Road26.112:397h2510:445h30-1h5513:458h30 +3h00+time
Temperance33.214:479h3212:257h10-2h2216:0010h45 +3h35+time
Sawbill38.416:3211h1713:448h29-2h4817:4012h25 +3h56+time
Oberg44.118:2013h0614:529h3815:029h48-3h2819:1013h55 +4h17+time
Finish · Caribou Highlands51.621:1516h0017:0411h50-4h1022:0016h45 +4h55+time

Crew and drop-bag columns and every cutoff are from the race’s aid station chart (8 Aug 2026), not from the plan. “~” marks a projection, and ± its range: the 25th–75th percentile of the error of the same projection across twelve years of finishers, tight for the next station and wide for the finish; † an arrival taken from a station report (ultralive or entered by hand). Green beat the plan, amber is behind it, red is a cutoff in danger. Times switch between clock and elapsed with the link above.

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Checked 03:11 CDT · reload

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