REPLAY — simulated data, not real runners. race 43h11 from the 100 gun · run 54500 Restart

David Bitner #514 · Superior 50 · Finland to Caribou Highlands

Crew Marin

7 of 7 aid stations reached · running 12% faster than plan

Finished 18:5413h40

Projections from the newest fix on the trail, the plan weighted 70% against the history; finish typically ±8m.

Projections are built on a fix 8h16m old.

AidMileCrewBag Plan InOut vs planCutoff
Sonju Lake Road7.007:142h0006:551h4006:581h43-19mnone+time
Crosby-Manitou11.108:173h0307:452h3007:542h40-32m09:103h55 +1h25+time
Sugarloaf20.811:055h5010:084h5310:185h03-57m12:106h55 +2h02+time
Cramer Road26.112:397h2511:346h20-1h0513:458h30 +2h10+time
Temperance33.214:479h3213:248h1013:458h30-1h2316:0010h45 +2h35+time
Sawbill38.416:3211h1715:089h5415:1810h03-1h2317:4012h25 +2h31+time
Oberg44.118:2013h0616:4411h2916:5411h40-1h3619:1013h55 +2h26+time
Finish · Caribou Highlands51.621:1516h0018:5413h40-2h2022:0016h45 +3h05+time

Crew and drop-bag columns and every cutoff are from the race’s aid station chart (8 Aug 2026), not from the plan. “~” marks a projection, and ± its range: the 25th–75th percentile of the error of the same projection across twelve years of finishers, tight for the next station and wide for the finish; † an arrival taken from a station report (ultralive or entered by hand). Green beat the plan, amber is behind it, red is a cutoff in danger. Times switch between clock and elapsed with the link above.

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