REPLAY — simulated data, not real runners. race 43h11 from the 100 gun · run 54097 Restart

David Bitner #514 · Superior 50 · Finland to Caribou Highlands

Crew Marin

7 of 7 aid stations reached · running 25% slower than plan

Finished 02:0420h50

Projections from the newest fix on the trail, the plan weighted 70% against the history; finish typically ±8m.

Projections are built on a fix 1h6m old.

AidMileCrewBag Plan InOut vs planCutoff
Sonju Lake Road7.007:142h0007:242h1007:342h20+10mnone+time
Crosby-Manitou11.108:173h0309:053h5009:254h10+47m09:103h55 +5m+time
! Sugarloaf20.811:055h5013:047h4913:148h00+1h5912:106h55 -54m+time
! Cramer Road26.112:397h2514:579h4315:079h53+2h1813:458h30 -1h13+time
! Temperance33.214:479h3217:5312h3818:0312h48+3h0616:0010h45 -1h53+time
! Sawbill38.416:3211h1720:0314h4820:2315h08+3h3117:4012h25 -2h23+time
! Oberg44.118:2013h0622:3217h1822:5317h38+4h1219:1013h55 -3h23+time
! Finish · Caribou Highlands51.621:1516h0002:0420h50+4h5022:0016h45 -4h05+time

Crew and drop-bag columns and every cutoff are from the race’s aid station chart (8 Aug 2026), not from the plan. “~” marks a projection, and ± its range: the 25th–75th percentile of the error of the same projection across twelve years of finishers, tight for the next station and wide for the finish; † an arrival taken from a station report (ultralive or entered by hand). Green beat the plan, amber is behind it, red is a cutoff in danger. Times switch between clock and elapsed with the link above.

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Checked 03:11 CDT · reload

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