REPLAY — simulated data, not real runners. race 43h11 from the 100 gun · run 51591 Restart

David Bitner #514 · Superior 50 · Finland to Caribou Highlands

Crew Marin

7 of 7 aid stations reached · running 12% faster than plan

Finished 19:1514h00

Projections from the newest fix on the trail, the plan weighted 70% against the history; finish typically ±8m.

Projections are built on a fix 7h56m old.

AidMileCrewBag Plan InOut vs planCutoff
Sonju Lake Road7.007:142h0006:441h30-30mnone+time
Crosby-Manitou11.108:173h0307:362h2107:392h24-42m09:103h55 +1h34+time
Sugarloaf20.811:055h5010:044h5010:084h54-1h0012:106h55 +2h05+time
Cramer Road26.112:397h2511:256h10-1h1413:458h30 +2h20+time
Temperance33.214:479h3213:148h00-1h3316:0010h45 +2h45+time
Sawbill38.416:3211h1714:449h30-1h4717:4012h25 +2h55+time
Oberg44.118:2013h0616:1410h5916:2411h10-2h0619:1013h55 +2h56+time
Finish · Caribou Highlands51.621:1516h0019:1514h00-2h0022:0016h45 +2h45+time

Crew and drop-bag columns and every cutoff are from the race’s aid station chart (8 Aug 2026), not from the plan. “~” marks a projection, and ± its range: the 25th–75th percentile of the error of the same projection across twelve years of finishers, tight for the next station and wide for the finish; † an arrival taken from a station report (ultralive or entered by hand). Green beat the plan, amber is behind it, red is a cutoff in danger. Times switch between clock and elapsed with the link above.

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Checked 03:11 CDT · reload

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