REPLAY — simulated data, not real runners. race 43h11 from the 100 gun · run 51180 Restart

David Bitner #514 · Superior 50 · Finland to Caribou Highlands

Crew Marin

7 of 7 aid stations reached · running 12% slower than plan

Finished 23:1418h00

Projections from the newest fix on the trail, the plan weighted 70% against the history; finish typically ±8m.

Projections are built on a fix 3h56m old.

AidMileCrewBag Plan InOut vs planCutoff
Sonju Lake Road7.007:142h0007:242h1007:342h20+10mnone+time
Crosby-Manitou11.108:173h0308:543h3909:043h49+37m09:103h55 +16m+time
Sugarloaf20.811:055h5011:546h39+49m12:106h55 +16m+time
Cramer Road26.112:397h2513:448h3013:548h39+1h0513:458h30 +0m+time
! Temperance33.214:479h3216:1411h0016:2411h10+1h2816:0010h45 -15m+time
! Sawbill38.416:3211h1718:1413h0018:2413h09+1h4317:4012h25 -35m+time
! Oberg44.118:2013h0620:1414h59+1h5419:1013h55 -1h04+time
! Finish · Caribou Highlands51.621:1516h0023:1418h00+2h0022:0016h45 -1h15+time

Crew and drop-bag columns and every cutoff are from the race’s aid station chart (8 Aug 2026), not from the plan. “~” marks a projection, and ± its range: the 25th–75th percentile of the error of the same projection across twelve years of finishers, tight for the next station and wide for the finish; † an arrival taken from a station report (ultralive or entered by hand). Green beat the plan, amber is behind it, red is a cutoff in danger. Times switch between clock and elapsed with the link above.

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Checked 03:11 CDT · reload

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