REPLAY — simulated data, not real runners. race 43h11 from the 100 gun · run 48899 Restart

David Superior 50 · Finland to Caribou Highlands

7 of 7 aid stations reached · running 16% faster than plan

Projections from the newest fix on the trail, the plan weighted 70% against the history; finish typically ±8m.

Projected departures add this runner’s average stop so far, 8m.

Projections are built on a fix 8h46m old.

ultraPacer plan · Garmin MapShare

AidMileCrewBag Plan InOutStop vs planCutoff
Sonju Lake Road7.007:142h0007:011h46-13mnone
Crosby-Manitou11.108:173h0307:452h3107:482h343m-32m09:103h55 +1h24
Sugarloaf20.811:055h5010:044h5010:144h5910m-1h0112:106h55 +2h05
Cramer Road26.112:397h2511:246h10-1h1513:458h30 +2h20
Temperance33.214:479h3212:547h4013:057h5011m-1h5316:0010h45 +3h05
Sawbill38.416:3211h1714:249h10-2h0717:4012h25 +3h15
Oberg44.118:2013h0616:0010h4516:1010h5510m-2h2019:1013h55 +3h10
Finish · Caribou Highlands51.621:1516h0018:2513h10-2h5022:0016h45 +3h35

Crew and drop-bag columns and every cutoff are from the race’s aid station chart (8 Aug 2026), not from the plan. “~” marks a projection, and ± its range: the 25th–75th percentile of the error of the same projection across twelve years of finishers, tight for the next station and wide for the finish; † an arrival taken from an ultralive aid-station report because the tracker had nothing there — those times are relayed by hand and can be off. Green beat the plan, amber is behind it, red is a cutoff in danger. “Stop” is blank where a stop was too short to distinguish from noise — and at a ten-minute tracking interval it cannot tell a stop apart from running that same stretch slowly, so read it as time lost around the station rather than time stood still. Times switch between clock and elapsed with the link above.