REPLAY — simulated data, not real runners. race 43h11 from the 100 gun · run 48856 Restart

David Bitner #514 · Superior 50 · Finland to Caribou Highlands

Crew Marin

7 of 7 aid stations reached · running 27% slower than plan

Projected finish 03:1321h59 (03:0521h5103:2122h07)past the 22:0016h45 cutoff

Projections from the newest fix on the trail, the plan weighted 30% against the history — the plan has stopped describing this run; finish typically ±8m.

AidMileCrewBag Plan InOut vs planCutoff
Sonju Lake Road7.007:142h0007:142h0007:252h10+0mnone+time
Crosby-Manitou11.108:173h0308:343h2009:144h00+17m09:103h55 +35m+time
! Sugarloaf20.811:055h5012:347h1912:447h30+1h2912:106h55 -24m+time
! Cramer Road26.112:397h2514:449h3014:549h40+2h0513:458h30 -1h00+time
! Temperance33.214:479h3217:3312h1917:4312h28+2h4716:0010h45 -1h34+time
! Sawbill38.416:3211h1720:2315h0820:4215h27+3h5117:4012h25 -2h43+time
! Oberg44.118:2013h0623:0217h4823:2218h07+4h4219:1013h55 -3h53+time
! Finish · Caribou Highlands51.621:1516h00~03:13~21h59 ±8m22:0016h45 -5h14+time

Crew and drop-bag columns and every cutoff are from the race’s aid station chart (8 Aug 2026), not from the plan. “~” marks a projection, and ± its range: the 25th–75th percentile of the error of the same projection across twelve years of finishers, tight for the next station and wide for the finish; † an arrival taken from a station report (ultralive or entered by hand). Green beat the plan, amber is behind it, red is a cutoff in danger. Times switch between clock and elapsed with the link above.

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