REPLAY — simulated data, not real runners. race 43h11 from the 100 gun · run 48411 Restart

David Bitner #514 · Superior 50 · Finland to Caribou Highlands

Crew Marin

7 of 7 aid stations reached · running 31% slower than plan

Projected finish 03:5322h38 (03:4522h3004:0122h46)past the 22:0016h45 cutoff

Projections from the newest fix on the trail, the plan weighted 30% against the history — the plan has stopped describing this run; finish typically ±8m.

AidMileCrewBag Plan InOut vs planCutoff
Sonju Lake Road7.007:142h0007:442h3007:542h39+30mnone+time
Crosby-Manitou11.108:173h0309:033h4809:133h58+46m09:103h55 +7m+time
! Sugarloaf20.811:055h5012:247h0912:447h30+1h1912:106h55 -14m+time
! Cramer Road26.112:397h2514:549h4015:149h59+2h1513:458h30 -1h10+time
! Temperance33.214:479h3217:4312h2818:0312h48+2h5616:0010h45 -1h43+time
! Sawbill38.416:3211h1720:3215h1820:4215h28+4h0117:4012h25 -2h53+time
! Oberg44.118:2013h0623:2218h0723:5118h37+5h0219:1013h55 -4h12+time
! Finish · Caribou Highlands51.621:1516h00~03:53~22h38 ±8m22:0016h45 -5h53+time

Crew and drop-bag columns and every cutoff are from the race’s aid station chart (8 Aug 2026), not from the plan. “~” marks a projection, and ± its range: the 25th–75th percentile of the error of the same projection across twelve years of finishers, tight for the next station and wide for the finish; † an arrival taken from a station report (ultralive or entered by hand). Green beat the plan, amber is behind it, red is a cutoff in danger. Times switch between clock and elapsed with the link above.

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