REPLAY — simulated data, not real runners. race 43h11 from the 100 gun · run 47892 Restart

David Bitner #514 · Superior 50 · Finland to Caribou Highlands

Crew Marin

7 of 7 aid stations reached · running 5% slower than plan

Finished 22:2517h10

Projections from the newest fix on the trail, the plan weighted 70% against the history; finish typically ±8m.

Projections are built on a fix 4h46m old.

AidMileCrewBag Plan InOut vs planCutoff
Sonju Lake Road7.007:142h0006:551h40-20mnone+time
Crosby-Manitou11.108:173h0308:042h5008:243h10-13m09:103h55 +1h05+time
Sugarloaf20.811:055h5010:585h44-7m12:106h55 +1h11+time
Cramer Road26.112:397h2512:457h3012:557h41+6m13:458h30 +1h00+time
Temperance33.214:479h3214:549h40+7m16:0010h45 +1h05+time
Sawbill38.416:3211h1716:5311h3817:0311h48+21m17:4012h25 +47m+time
Oberg44.118:2013h0618:4313h2918:5413h39+23m19:1013h55 +26m+time
! Finish · Caribou Highlands51.621:1516h0022:2517h10+1h1022:0016h45 -25m+time

Crew and drop-bag columns and every cutoff are from the race’s aid station chart (8 Aug 2026), not from the plan. “~” marks a projection, and ± its range: the 25th–75th percentile of the error of the same projection across twelve years of finishers, tight for the next station and wide for the finish; † an arrival taken from a station report (ultralive or entered by hand). Green beat the plan, amber is behind it, red is a cutoff in danger. Times switch between clock and elapsed with the link above.

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Checked 03:11 CDT · reload

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