REPLAY — simulated data, not real runners. race 43h11 from the 100 gun · run 46403 Restart

David Bitner #514 · Superior 50 · Finland to Caribou Highlands

Crew Marin

7 of 7 aid stations reached · running 2% faster than plan

Finished 20:5515h40

Projections from the newest fix on the trail, the plan weighted 30% against the history — the plan has stopped describing this run; finish typically ±8m.

Projections are built on a fix 6h16m old.

AidMileCrewBag Plan InOut vs planCutoff
Sonju Lake Road7.007:142h0006:541h4007:142h00-20mnone+in +out
Crosby-Manitou11.108:173h0308:132h5808:233h08-4m09:103h55 +57m+in +out
Sugarloaf20.811:055h5010:345h20-30m12:106h55 +1h35+in +out
Cramer Road26.112:397h2512:046h5012:147h00-35m13:458h30 +1h40+in +out
Temperance33.214:479h3214:249h1014:279h12-22m16:0010h45 +1h35+in +out
Sawbill38.416:3211h1715:5910h4516:1010h55-32m17:4012h25 +1h40+in +out
Oberg44.118:2013h0617:3212h1717:4112h27-48m19:1013h55 +1h38+in +out
Finish · Caribou Highlands51.621:1516h0020:5515h40-20m22:0016h45 +1h05+in +out

Crew and drop-bag columns and every cutoff are from the race’s aid station chart (8 Aug 2026), not from the plan. “~” marks a projection, and ± its range: the 25th–75th percentile of the error of the same projection across twelve years of finishers, tight for the next station and wide for the finish; † an arrival taken from a station report (ultralive or entered by hand). Green beat the plan, amber is behind it, red is a cutoff in danger. Times switch between clock and elapsed with the link above.

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Checked 03:11 CDT · reload