REPLAY — simulated data, not real runners. race 43h11 from the 100 gun · run 45895 Restart

David Bitner #514 · Superior 50 · Finland to Caribou Highlands

Crew Marin

7 of 7 aid stations reached · running 24% slower than plan

Finished 02:1521h00

Projections from the newest fix on the trail, the plan weighted 30% against the history — the plan has stopped describing this run; finish typically ±8m.

Projections are built on a fix 56m old.

AidMileCrewBag Plan InOut vs planCutoff
Sonju Lake Road7.007:142h0007:252h10+11mnone+time
Crosby-Manitou11.108:173h0308:343h20+17m09:103h55 +35m+time
Sugarloaf20.811:055h5011:266h1211:376h22+22m12:106h55 +43m+time
Cramer Road26.112:397h2513:448h2914:038h48+1h0413:458h30 +1m+time
! Temperance33.214:479h3216:4411h3017:0411h49+1h5816:0010h45 -45m+time
! Sawbill38.416:3211h1719:1414h0019:3414h20+2h4317:4012h25 -1h35+time
! Oberg44.118:2013h0621:5316h3822:1316h58+3h3319:1013h55 -2h43+time
! Finish · Caribou Highlands51.621:1516h0002:1521h00+5h0022:0016h45 -4h15+time

Crew and drop-bag columns and every cutoff are from the race’s aid station chart (8 Aug 2026), not from the plan. “~” marks a projection, and ± its range: the 25th–75th percentile of the error of the same projection across twelve years of finishers, tight for the next station and wide for the finish; † an arrival taken from a station report (ultralive or entered by hand). Green beat the plan, amber is behind it, red is a cutoff in danger. Times switch between clock and elapsed with the link above.

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Checked 03:11 CDT · reload

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