REPLAY — simulated data, not real runners. race 43h11 from the 100 gun · run 45274 Restart

David Bitner #514 · Superior 50 · Finland to Caribou Highlands

Crew Marin

7 of 7 aid stations reached · running 2% slower than plan

Finished 21:5516h40

Projections from the newest fix on the trail, the plan weighted 70% against the history; finish typically ±8m.

Projections are built on a fix 5h16m old.

AidMileCrewBag Plan InOut vs planCutoff
Sonju Lake Road7.007:142h0007:142h00+0mnone+in +out
Crosby-Manitou11.108:173h0308:173h0308:273h13-0m09:103h55 +52m+in +out
Sugarloaf20.811:055h5011:055h5011:156h00-0m12:106h55 +1h05+in +out
Cramer Road26.112:397h2512:347h1912:447h30-5m13:458h30 +1h11+in +out
Temperance33.214:479h3214:349h20-13m16:0010h45 +1h25+in +out
Sawbill38.416:3211h1716:2411h1016:3411h20-7m17:4012h25 +1h15+in +out
Oberg44.118:2013h0618:2213h0818:3213h18+2m19:1013h55 +47m+in +out
Finish · Caribou Highlands51.621:1516h0021:5516h40+40m22:0016h45 +5m+in +out

Crew and drop-bag columns and every cutoff are from the race’s aid station chart (8 Aug 2026), not from the plan. “~” marks a projection, and ± its range: the 25th–75th percentile of the error of the same projection across twelve years of finishers, tight for the next station and wide for the finish; † an arrival taken from a station report (ultralive or entered by hand). Green beat the plan, amber is behind it, red is a cutoff in danger. Times switch between clock and elapsed with the link above.

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