REPLAY — simulated data, not real runners. race 43h11 from the 100 gun · run 45003 Restart

David Bitner #514 · Superior 50 · Finland to Caribou Highlands

Crew Marin

7 of 7 aid stations reached · running 24% slower than plan

Finished 02:2521h10

Projections from the newest fix on the trail, the plan weighted 30% against the history — the plan has stopped describing this run; finish typically ±8m.

Projections are built on a fix 46m old.

AidMileCrewBag Plan InOut vs planCutoff
Sonju Lake Road7.007:142h0007:051h50-9mnone+in +out
Crosby-Manitou11.108:173h0308:143h0008:243h10-3m09:103h55 +55m+in +out
Sugarloaf20.811:055h5011:366h2211:466h32+32m12:106h55 +33m+in +out
Cramer Road26.112:397h2513:438h2914:038h49+1h0413:458h30 +2m+in +out
! Temperance33.214:479h3216:4411h29+1h5716:0010h45 -44m+in +out
! Sawbill38.416:3211h1719:1313h5819:4314h29+2h4117:4012h25 -1h33+in +out
! Oberg44.118:2013h0622:0216h4822:2217h08+3h4219:1013h55 -2h53+in +out
! Finish · Caribou Highlands51.621:1516h0002:2521h10+5h1022:0016h45 -4h25+in +out

Crew and drop-bag columns and every cutoff are from the race’s aid station chart (8 Aug 2026), not from the plan. “~” marks a projection, and ± its range: the 25th–75th percentile of the error of the same projection across twelve years of finishers, tight for the next station and wide for the finish; † an arrival taken from a station report (ultralive or entered by hand). Green beat the plan, amber is behind it, red is a cutoff in danger. Times switch between clock and elapsed with the link above.

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Checked 03:11 CDT · reload