REPLAY — simulated data, not real runners. race 43h11 from the 100 gun · run 44827 Restart

David Bitner #514 · Superior 50 · Finland to Caribou Highlands

Crew Marin

7 of 7 aid stations reached · running 33% slower than plan

Projected finish 04:0422h49 (03:5522h4104:1222h58)past the 22:0016h45 cutoff

Projections from the newest fix on the trail, the plan weighted 70% against the history; finish typically ±8m.

AidMileCrewBag Plan InOut vs planCutoff
Sonju Lake Road7.007:142h0007:542h40+40mnone+time
! Crosby-Manitou11.108:173h0309:133h5809:324h18+56m09:103h55 -3m+time
! Sugarloaf20.811:055h5012:457h30+1h4012:106h55 -35m+time
! Cramer Road26.112:397h2514:549h3915:1410h00+2h1513:458h30 -1h09+time
! Temperance33.214:479h3218:0612h5218:1613h02+3h1916:0010h45 -2h07+time
! Sawbill38.416:3211h1720:4315h2821:0215h48+4h1117:4012h25 -3h03+time
! Oberg44.118:2013h0623:5218h3800:0218h48+5h3219:1013h55 -4h43+time
! Finish · Caribou Highlands51.621:1516h00~04:04~22h49 ±8m22:0016h45 -6h04+time

Crew and drop-bag columns and every cutoff are from the race’s aid station chart (8 Aug 2026), not from the plan. “~” marks a projection, and ± its range: the 25th–75th percentile of the error of the same projection across twelve years of finishers, tight for the next station and wide for the finish; † an arrival taken from a station report (ultralive or entered by hand). Green beat the plan, amber is behind it, red is a cutoff in danger. Times switch between clock and elapsed with the link above.

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