REPLAY — simulated data, not real runners. race 43h11 from the 100 gun · run 43005 Restart

David Bitner #514 · Superior 50 · Finland to Caribou Highlands

Crew Marin

7 of 7 aid stations reached · running 14% slower than plan

Finished 23:4418h30

Projections from the newest fix on the trail, the plan weighted 70% against the history; finish typically ±8m.

Projections are built on a fix 3h26m old.

AidMileCrewBag Plan InOut vs planCutoff
Sonju Lake Road7.007:142h0007:352h2007:442h30+21mnone+time
Crosby-Manitou11.108:173h0308:543h4009:254h10+37m09:103h55 +15m+time
Sugarloaf20.811:055h5012:046h4912:076h52+59m12:106h55 +6m+time
! Cramer Road26.112:397h2513:548h40+1h1513:458h30 -10m+time
! Temperance33.214:479h3216:0510h50+1h1816:0010h45 -5m+time
! Sawbill38.416:3211h1718:1212h5818:3313h18+1h4117:4012h25 -33m+time
! Oberg44.118:2013h0620:2215h0720:3115h17+2h0219:1013h55 -1h12+time
! Finish · Caribou Highlands51.621:1516h0023:4418h30+2h3022:0016h45 -1h45+time

Crew and drop-bag columns and every cutoff are from the race’s aid station chart (8 Aug 2026), not from the plan. “~” marks a projection, and ± its range: the 25th–75th percentile of the error of the same projection across twelve years of finishers, tight for the next station and wide for the finish; † an arrival taken from a station report (ultralive or entered by hand). Green beat the plan, amber is behind it, red is a cutoff in danger. Times switch between clock and elapsed with the link above.

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Checked 03:11 CDT · reload

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