REPLAY — simulated data, not real runners. race 43h11 from the 100 gun · run 41889 Restart

David Bitner #514 · Superior 50 · Finland to Caribou Highlands

Crew Marin

7 of 7 aid stations reached · running 26% slower than plan

Finished 02:2421h10

Projections from the newest fix on the trail, the plan weighted 70% against the history; finish typically ±8m.

Projections are built on a fix 46m old.

AidMileCrewBag Plan InOut vs planCutoff
Sonju Lake Road7.007:142h0007:242h10+10mnone+time
Crosby-Manitou11.108:173h0308:443h30+27m09:103h55 +25m+time
! Sugarloaf20.811:055h5012:157h0012:257h10+1h1012:106h55 -5m+time
! Cramer Road26.112:397h2514:189h0314:279h13+1h3813:458h30 -33m+time
! Temperance33.214:479h3217:1412h0017:2412h10+2h2716:0010h45 -1h15+time
! Sawbill38.416:3211h1719:4314h2820:0314h49+3h1117:4012h25 -2h03+time
! Oberg44.118:2013h0622:1216h5722:3117h17+3h5219:1013h55 -3h02+time
! Finish · Caribou Highlands51.621:1516h0002:2421h10+5h1022:0016h45 -4h25+time

Crew and drop-bag columns and every cutoff are from the race’s aid station chart (8 Aug 2026), not from the plan. “~” marks a projection, and ± its range: the 25th–75th percentile of the error of the same projection across twelve years of finishers, tight for the next station and wide for the finish; † an arrival taken from a station report (ultralive or entered by hand). Green beat the plan, amber is behind it, red is a cutoff in danger. Times switch between clock and elapsed with the link above.

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Checked 03:11 CDT · reload

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