REPLAY — simulated data, not real runners. race 43h11 from the 100 gun · run 41019 Restart

David Bitner #514 · Superior 50 · Finland to Caribou Highlands

Crew Marin

7 of 7 aid stations reached · running 16% slower than plan

Finished 00:1419h00

Projections from the newest fix on the trail, the plan weighted 70% against the history; finish typically ±8m.

Projections are built on a fix 2h56m old.

AidMileCrewBag Plan InOut vs planCutoff
Sonju Lake Road7.007:142h0007:302h1607:402h26+16mnone+in +out
Crosby-Manitou11.108:173h0308:433h2908:533h39+26m09:103h55 +26m+in +out
Sugarloaf20.811:055h5011:446h3011:476h32+39m12:106h55 +25m+in +out
Cramer Road26.112:397h2513:358h2013:548h40+55m13:458h30 +10m+in +out
! Temperance33.214:479h3216:1411h00+1h2716:0010h45 -15m+in +out
! Sawbill38.416:3211h1718:3313h1918:5313h38+2h0217:4012h25 -54m+in +out
! Oberg44.118:2013h0620:4415h2920:5415h39+2h2419:1013h55 -1h34+in +out
! Finish · Caribou Highlands51.621:1516h0000:1419h00+3h0022:0016h45 -2h15+in +out

Crew and drop-bag columns and every cutoff are from the race’s aid station chart (8 Aug 2026), not from the plan. “~” marks a projection, and ± its range: the 25th–75th percentile of the error of the same projection across twelve years of finishers, tight for the next station and wide for the finish; † an arrival taken from a station report (ultralive or entered by hand). Green beat the plan, amber is behind it, red is a cutoff in danger. Times switch between clock and elapsed with the link above.

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