REPLAY — simulated data, not real runners. race 43h11 from the 100 gun · run 40862 Restart

David Bitner #514 · Superior 50 · Finland to Caribou Highlands

Crew Marin

7 of 7 aid stations reached · running 11% slower than plan

Finished 23:4418h30

Projections from the newest fix on the trail, the plan weighted 70% against the history; finish typically ±8m.

Projections are built on a fix 3h26m old.

AidMileCrewBag Plan InOut vs planCutoff
Sonju Lake Road7.007:142h0007:242h1007:282h14+10mnone+in +out
Crosby-Manitou11.108:173h0308:353h2008:443h30+18m09:103h55 +35m+in +out
Sugarloaf20.811:055h5011:436h2811:526h38+38m12:106h55 +27m+in +out
Cramer Road26.112:397h2513:348h1913:448h29+55m13:458h30 +11m+in +out
! Temperance33.214:479h3216:0410h50+1h1716:0010h45 -5m+in +out
! Sawbill38.416:3211h1717:5412h39+1h2217:4012h25 -14m+in +out
! Oberg44.118:2013h0619:4314h2820:1314h59+1h2319:1013h55 -33m+in +out
! Finish · Caribou Highlands51.621:1516h0023:4418h30+2h3022:0016h45 -1h45+in +out

Crew and drop-bag columns and every cutoff are from the race’s aid station chart (8 Aug 2026), not from the plan. “~” marks a projection, and ± its range: the 25th–75th percentile of the error of the same projection across twelve years of finishers, tight for the next station and wide for the finish; † an arrival taken from a station report (ultralive or entered by hand). Green beat the plan, amber is behind it, red is a cutoff in danger. Times switch between clock and elapsed with the link above.

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