REPLAY — simulated data, not real runners. race 43h11 from the 100 gun · run 38017 Restart

David Bitner #514 · Superior 50 · Finland to Caribou Highlands

Crew Marin

7 of 7 aid stations reached · running 8% slower than plan

Finished 22:3517h20

Projections from the newest fix on the trail, the plan weighted 30% against the history — the plan has stopped describing this run; finish typically ±8m.

Projections are built on a fix 4h36m old.

AidMileCrewBag Plan InOut vs planCutoff
Sonju Lake Road7.007:142h0006:551h4007:051h50-19mnone+time
Crosby-Manitou11.108:173h0308:142h5908:233h09-4m09:103h55 +56m+time
Sugarloaf20.811:055h5010:555h40-10m12:106h55 +1h15+time
Cramer Road26.112:397h2512:447h3012:547h40+5m13:458h30 +1h00+time
Temperance33.214:479h3215:129h5815:2210h08+25m16:0010h45 +47m+time
Sawbill38.416:3211h1717:1912h0517:2912h14+48m17:4012h25 +20m+time
! Oberg44.118:2013h0619:2214h0819:3314h18+1h0219:1013h55 -13m+time
! Finish · Caribou Highlands51.621:1516h0022:3517h20+1h2022:0016h45 -35m+time

Crew and drop-bag columns and every cutoff are from the race’s aid station chart (8 Aug 2026), not from the plan. “~” marks a projection, and ± its range: the 25th–75th percentile of the error of the same projection across twelve years of finishers, tight for the next station and wide for the finish; † an arrival taken from a station report (ultralive or entered by hand). Green beat the plan, amber is behind it, red is a cutoff in danger. Times switch between clock and elapsed with the link above.

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Checked 03:11 CDT · reload

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