REPLAY — simulated data, not real runners. race 43h11 from the 100 gun · run 32405 Restart

David Superior 50 · Finland to Caribou Highlands

7 of 7 aid stations reached · running 19% slower than plan

Projections from the newest fix on the trail, the plan weighted 70% against the history; finish typically ±3m.

Projected departures add this runner’s average stop so far, 15m.

Projections are built on a fix 2h26m old.

ultraPacer plan · Garmin MapShare

AidMileCrewBag Plan InOutStop vs planCutoff
Sonju Lake Road7.007:142h0007:242h1007:342h2010m+10mnone
Crosby-Manitou11.108:173h0308:533h3909:033h4910m+36m09:103h55 +16m
Sugarloaf20.811:055h5012:036h4812:126h5810m+58m12:106h55 +7m
! Cramer Road26.112:397h2513:478h3314:179h0330m+1h0813:458h30 -3m
! Temperance33.214:479h3216:5411h39+2h0716:0010h45 -54m
! Sawbill38.416:3211h1719:0313h4919:1313h5810m+2h3117:4012h25 -1h24
! Oberg44.118:2013h0621:2216h0721:4116h2720m+3h0219:1013h55 -2h12
! Finish · Caribou Highlands51.621:1516h0000:4519h30+3h3022:0016h45 -2h45

Crew and drop-bag columns and every cutoff are from the race’s aid station chart (8 Aug 2026), not from the plan. “~” marks a projection, and ± its range: the 25th–75th percentile of the error of the same projection across twelve years of finishers, tight for the next station and wide for the finish; † an arrival taken from an ultralive aid-station report because the tracker had nothing there — those times are relayed by hand and can be off. Green beat the plan, amber is behind it, red is a cutoff in danger. “Stop” is blank where a stop was too short to distinguish from noise — and at a ten-minute tracking interval it cannot tell a stop apart from running that same stretch slowly, so read it as time lost around the station rather than time stood still. Times switch between clock and elapsed with the link above.